Scientists Warn of Worst Case Scenario: “Solar Flares… Will Short Circuit Satellites, Power Grids, Ground Communication Equipment”

grid-down-city

Researchers from the University of Colorado Boulder recently completed analyzing data from a Coronal Mass Ejection that took place in the summer of 2012. The CME, which was reportedly the most powerful electrical discharge ever recorded from the sun, narrowly missed earth. It was not “earth directed,” meaning the electro-magnetic mass was ejected by the sun when it was facing away from our planet. However, had it occurred just a week prior, the highly charged particles would have struck earth and, according to CU-Boulder Professor Daniel Baker, would have led to nothing short of a technological disaster across the globe.

The CME itself was massive… and its speed was unprecedented, clocking in at 7 million miles per hour.

While typical coronal mass ejections from the sun take two or three days to reach Earth, the 2012 event traveled from the sun’s surface to Earth in just 18 hours.

“The speed of this event was as fast or faster than anything that has been seen in the modern space age,” said Baker.

While early warning systems are capable of detecting CME’s and solar flares ahead of time, this particular event happened so quickly that it is unclear if monitoring groups at NASA’s Solar Shield Project would have been able to send alerts to emergency services teams in time.

Had it struck earth, says Baker, it would have caused damage so significant that modern electrical systems would have been fried.

Had it hit Earth, the July 2012 event likely would have created a technological disaster by short-circuiting satellites, power grids, ground communication equipment and even threatening the health of astronauts and aircraft crews.

We have proposed that the 2012 event be adopted as the best estimate of the worst case space weather scenario

We argue that this extreme event should be immediately employed by the space weather community to model severe space weather effects on technological systems such as the electrical power grid.

I liken it to war games — since we have the information about the event, let’s play it through our various models and see what happens.

If we do this, we would be a significant step closer to providing policymakers with real-world, concrete kinds of information that can be used to explore what would happen to various technologies on Earth and in orbit rather than waiting to be clobbered by a direct hit.

Source: Colorado.edu via Activist Post

Most policy makers have not taken the threat of an earth-directed solar flare seriously, even though a senior member of the Congressional Homeland Security Committee recently warned that there is a 100% Chance of a Severe Geo-Magnetic Event Capable of Crippling Our Electric Grid.

If such an event were to happen Congressman Roscoe Bartlett, who has advised people to develop individual preparedness plans based on the threat of massive solar flares or electro-magnetic pulse detonations, says that it would take upwards of 18 months to bring the grid back online because of a decaying national infrastructure.

We could have events in the future where the power grid will go down and it’s not, in any reasonable time, coming back up. For instance, if when the power grid went down some of our large transformers were destroyed, damaged beyond use, we don’t make any of those in this country. They’re made overseas and you order one and 18 months to two years later they will deliver it. Our power grid is very vulnerable. It’s very much on edge. Our military knows that.

There are a number of events that could create a situation in the cities where civil unrest would be a very high probability. And, I think that those who can, and those who understand, need to take advantage of the opportunity when these winds of strife are not blowing to move their families out of the city.

If a solar kill shot were to occur and short out the electrical power grid, it has been estimated that some nine out of ten Americans would be dead within one year as transportation systems broke down, food delivery ceased, commerce systems no longer functioned, communications equipment became inoperable and utilities, such as water treatment plants, were incapable of delivery services.

The ramifications would be serious and almost immediate according to a 132-page NASA funded report on Understanding the Economic and Societal Impacts of Severe Space Weather:

To estimate the scale of such a failure, report co-author John Kappenmann of the Metatech Corporation looked at the great geomagnetic storm of May 1921, which produced ground currents as much as ten times stronger than the 1989 Quebec storm, and modeled its effect on the modern power grid.

He found more than 350 transformers at risk of permanent damage and 130 million people without power.

The loss of electricity would ripple across the social infrastructure with “water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, fuel re-supply and so on.”

If you’ve ever wondered what a massive electrical surge from an electro-magnetic pulse weaponsolar flare or cyber attack might look like, then take a look at this footage shot in Montreal.

Imagine a powerful X-class solar flare striking earth and sending a surge like the one above across the entire U.S. power grid.

Are you prepared for such an event?

Related reading:

When the Grid Goes Down, You Better Be Ready (Ready Nutrition)

Getting Started: Prepping for a Two Week Power Out (The Organic Prepper)


SHTF Plan – When It Hits The Fan, Don’t Say We Didn’t Warn You

Forget Gold: Only Food, Tools and Resourcefulness Will Matter In a Mad Max Scenario

When we talk about Mad Max scenarios, we are talking about events where the world as we know it no longer exists. No banks, no credit cards, no grocery stores, no gas stations, and a landscape devoid of law & order.

It’s an outlier to be sure, but one that has been experienced by millions of people throughout history.

Worst case scenarios do happen. And when they do, the activities associated with the regular flow of commerce as we understand them today cease completely.

Historically, this has happened more often than not as a result of economic calamity stemming from states that take on massive amounts of debt, with the end result being widespread war and total economic destruction.

Should such events come to pass in our modern era, everything we believe to be valuable today will be redefined, and only those assets of real worth will maintain their trading power.

According to cyclical analyst and historian Martin Armstrong, the dominant objects of value during a socio-economic collapse are those goods that can be used immediately for the purposes of survival or barter.

A number of readers have asked ‘doesn’t gold survive a Mad Max event?’

Historically, the answer to that is no. Dark Ages seem to be the total collapse of all economic activity on a collective basis. This is why there are huge gaps in the monetary history in Greece, Western Europe after the fall of Rome, and even in Japan. The duration is rather consistent – 600 years.

What happens is civilization swings to its opposite – no-civilization where just enclaves emerge with little to no interaction with others.

The Mad Max outcome is the swing back to barter where the dominant object of value first becomes food, then tools (bronze), and only after all that becomes stable, we see the return to luxury which is when gold and silver come back. You cannot eat them. They are valuable only based upon the demand of others.

If they want food, sorry even gold goes off the map during such periods. It is typically grain or in the case of Japan bags of rice.

Historically, society waits until it is too late and then they just massacre the protesters.

Martin Armstrong via Prepper Website

We cannot stress enough that these kinds of events, where civilization has regressed to what essentially amounts to hunting and gathering, has happened repeatedly and on a cyclical basis on numerous occasions over the last 5000 years.

It will happen again. This is inevitable.

We are on the very cusp of such a frightening outcome right now. Perhaps we can avoid the same outcome as Rome,a collapse which led to hundreds of years of war and impoverishment during the Dark Ages. But the reality is that we are well on our way to repeating their mistakes.

Our country has taken on so much debt that it will require the labor of generations in order to pay it back, something that is very rapidly becoming improbable. Half of the households in the United States are dependent on monthly government distributions just to make ends meet. Those who are paying the taxes to cover these expenses are either losing their jobs or experiencing wage reductions, putting further strain on the system as a whole. Trillions of dollars in wealth are being transferred from the poor and working class into the hands of banking cartels, the military industrial complex, and elite members of the global oligarchy.

Confidence by the masses may well be lost in short order. We’re seeing pockets of this all over the world. It’s like a viral contagion. First it starts on a small scale, and then spreads uncontrollably to all corners of the globe.

Gold, while it is certainly a store of value, will often take a backseat in the midst of collapse simply because food, shelter and safety will be the only concerns that matter. This isn’t to say you should not own gold and silver to use as a mechanism of exchange, just that you need to understand  its viability as a barter tool based on the crisis at hand.

Just as it was a thousand years ago during the period following the breakup of Rome, in Argentina today farmers are hoarding  grain while their currency and country’s economy collapses.

Food is a dominant asset. Tools, whether they be firearms or plows, become dominant assets in a world where you have to depend on yourself or a small community to survive. Your resourcefulness, such as an ability to put a roof over your head, grow your own food, purify water or preserve your food for winter, will be dominant assets.

It may take a decade or it may happen overnight. But one thing’s for sure: a pan-global collapse is coming. And when it does, make sure you are in possession of the dominant objects of value. Failure to understand history and prepare for the future will mean certain doom for millions. But Mad Max scenarios are survivable for those with the wherewithal to prepare.


SHTF Plan – When It Hits The Fan, Don’t Say We Didn’t Warn You

Outbreak: Frightening H7N9 Study: “Authorities Should Definitely Be Alarmed and Get Prepared for the Worst-Case Scenario”

While U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention director Tom Frieden suggests there is no cause for panic over the H7N9 influenza strain and says that Americans, “go about their daily lives,” this unusually dangerous virus has concerned officials at the CDC to such an extent that they are rapidly working to develop an effective vaccine in the event it makes its way to North America.

According to the World Health Organization, the H7N9 bird flu virus is one the most lethal influenza strains ever identified. The first case appeared in China in late February and has since spread to scores of others, with at least 109 cases having been reported to WHO thus far, 22 of which have resulted in death. This amounts to a kill rate of 20%. These are laboratory confirmations, so in all likelihood there are hundreds, perhaps thousands, of others who may be infected with the virus that haven’t received medical attention.

In the last 24 hours officials in Taiwan confirmed the first case of the virus outside of China. The patient was originally hospitalized on April 12, but confirmation of the virus did not come until nearly two weeks later, suggesting that the official numbers and the reality on the ground are starkly different.

Moreover, as reported by WHO, half of the H7N9 cases identified are individuals who have had no prior contact with poultry.

If true, this would be strong evidence that H7N9 has already achieved “human-to-human transmission,” turning it into a “nightmare influenza” that might already be spreading across the population.

That status is not proven yet, however, and more observation is needed before such a conclusion could be substantiated.

“If H7N9 were to stably adapt to humans, it would probably meet with little or no human immunity,” writes Peter Horby from Nature.com. “Detecting and tracking a partially human-adapted H7N9 virus in a city as vast as Shanghai or Beijing would be difficult; tracking a fully adapted virus would be impossible. And it could easily spread nationally and internationally.

Source: Natural News

While transmission between humans is not yet confirmed, the South China Morning Post cites a frightening study that suggests the virus is  mutating at an alarming rate:

The new bird flu could be mutating up to eight times faster than an average flu virus around a protein that binds it to humans, a team of research scientists in Shenzhen says.

Dr He Jiankui, an associate professor at South University of Science and Technology of China, said yesterday that the authorities should be alarmed by the results of their research and step up monitoring and control efforts to prevent a possible pandemic.

“It happened in just one or two weeks. The speed may not have caught up with the HIV, but it’s quite unusual for a flu.”

The fast mutation makes the virus’ evolutionary development very hard to predict. “We don’t know whether it will evolve into something harmless or dangerous,” He said. “Our samples are too limited. But the authorities should definitely be alarmed and get prepared for the worst-case scenario.

It’s impossible for the general public to know how this virus has mutated. Government officials in China are not sharing any specific details, and as noted, there are significant delays between the time a patient enters the hospital and when the virus is confirmed as H7N9.

Furthermore, if this virus has become transmittable by way of human to human contact it’s likely that government officials, in an effort to prevent panic, will wait as long as possible before they disseminate information to the public.

There is not much we can do unless we know it’s coming. The evidence thus far indicates the virus is continuing to spread. We really don’t know if it has gone human-to-human, and we may not know until it’s too late.

The Chinese study cited above suggests that authorities start preparing for a worst-case scenario.

We suggests individuals do the same and take steps now to prepare for a pandemic.

Stay up to date with information as it becomes available. If it’s confirmed that humans can pass this to each other, then avoid densely populated areas, especially schools, sporting events or any public gatherings. A 20% kill rate is not something to gamble with, so avoiding external human contact should this go critical is key to survival.

With the ease of travel across the globe, it won’t take long at all for this virus to appear in every major city on the planet.

The Black Death wiped out nearly one-third of Europe’s population in the mid 1300′s (incidentally, this plague reportedly started in China). The Spanish Flu infected half a billion people across the globe and killed upwards of 50 million in the early 1900′s.

It’s only a matter of time before the next mass pandemic makes its way across the world, and all of our technological advancements and modern day implements will be powerless to stop it.

Hat tip Satori for reference links


SHTF Plan – When It Hits The Fan, Don’t Say We Didn’t Warn You

GOD’S OCTOBER SURPRISE: HURRICANE SANDY POSES “WORST CASE SCENARIO,” SAYS EXPERTS

Isn’t God trying to get our attention?

This is God’s “October Surprise.” Hurricane Sandy is a potentially historic, catastrophic, monstrous, devasting storm.

  • * It is a “superstorm” that is 700 miles wide. * It has already killed 66 people* It is carrying winds of 100 mph or more. * It threatens to knock out power for 60 million Americans or more for days on end. * It threatens to create blizzard conditions in parts of PA, MD, VA and WVA that could drop 2 feet of snow or more on rural communities. * More than 9,000 flights have been canceled. * Schools are closed. * The federal government is mostly closed.* Public transportation is not operating on the much of the East Coast.* The U.S. stock markets are closed.* Those of us in the Washington, D.C. area have been warned to finish last-minute errands by noon and not to go outside after that because conditions will be “life-threatening.”  Weather experts say poses the “worst case scenario” to the Eastern seaboard of the United States.  Isn’t God trying to get our attention? Just days before one of the most significant and momentous presidential and Congressional elections in American history, I believe God is reminding us that America’s fate lies not in the hands of the politicians, but in His hands. Will America listen? Will we realize how fragile our existence is, how desperately we need the Lord’s divine love and protection?Please pray for the Lord God Almighty to dissipate the intensity of the storm and to protect the lives of people and property. Pray, too, that the Lord uses this moment to motivate Americans to repent of our sins and turn to faith in Jesus Christ as our only hope of personal and national salvation and rescue. “If My people, who are called by My name, will humble themselves and pray, and seek My face, and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven and will forgive their sins and heal their land.” (2 Chronicles 7:14)

“The projected storm surge from Hurricane Sandy is a “worst case scenario” with devastating waves and tides predicted for the highly populated New York City metro area, government forecasters said Sunday,” reports the Associated Press. Excerpts from the story

  • The more they observe it, the more the experts worry about the water — which usually kills and does more damage than winds in hurricanes. In this case, seas will be amped up by giant waves and full-moon-powered high tides. That will combine with drenching rains, triggering inland flooding as the hurricane merges with a winter storm system that will worsen it and hold it in place for days.
  • Louis Uccellini, environmental prediction chief for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told The Associated Press that given Sandy’s due east-to-west track into New Jersey, that puts the worst of the storm surge just north in New York City, Long Island and northern New Jersey. “Yes, this is the worst case scenario,” he said.
  • In a measurement of pure kinetic energy, NOAA’s hurricane research division on Sunday ranked the surge and wave “destruction potential” for Sandy — just the hurricane, not the hybrid storm it will eventually become — at 5.8 on a 0 to 6 scale. The damage expected from winds will be far less, experts said.
  • Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters says that surge destruction potential number is a record and it’s due to the storm’s massive size. The storm surge energy numbers are bigger than the deadly 2005 Hurricane Katrina, but that can be misleading. Katrina’s destruction was concentrated in a small area, making it much worse, Masters said. Sandy’s storm surge energy is spread over a wider area. Also, Katrina hit a city that is below sea level and had problems with levees.
  • National Hurricane Center Director Rick Knabb said Hurricane Sandy’s size means some coastal parts of New York and New Jersey may see water rise from 6 to 11 feet from surge and waves. The rest of the coast north of Virginia can expect 4 to 8 feet of surge.

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